Sport memory

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Pardon my absence last week, porch-goers.  I was initially inclined to break down the Colts’ unfortunate Super Bowl loss, but I got about two or three words into that post before I was (re-)filled with soul-crushing despair and the self-loathing any sports fanatic experiences the day after their team blows a winnable game.  I do not exaggerate when I say that I hardly slept that Sunday night, and didn’t really feel like myself until several days later.  Even now, I get a little irritable and depressed when I glance at my Manning wallpaper.  (Note to self: change desktop wallpaper.)

I come not today to dissect that game, but instead to talk about something very similar: why fans love sports and stick with it, and why it’s always better in memory than in real time.

Why don’t losses like this one stop me from being a Colts fan?  I could direct you to the Super Bowl the Colts won just a few years ago.  In fact, as recently as February 8th around 9 pm, I still thought that was why.  That’s the conventional wisdom: you trade all the lows in for a few unbelievable highs.  Each game is a microcosm for this concept, at least when you don’t root for the Lions.  Your QB throws a pick or the other team scores a flurry of points, and it pains you deeply; but then they get a touchdown and mount a comeback, and you feel the rush, a fairly inexplicable giddiness that things are turning around and victory is in sight; and if they should actually win, it was all worth it, wasn’t it?  You (and your team) prance; they (and their team) lower their heads in defeat.  Anyone with a finely-honed competitive instinct understands the idea.  In larger scale, you suffer through losing seasons and heartbreaker games so you can enjoy winning seasons, playoff runs, and eventually a Super Bowl.  When your quarterback/forward/seeker clutches and hoists high the Lombardi Trophy/Stanley Cup/golden snitch, that momentary high is so great that it is supposed to offset everything else.

But it doesn’t.

No normal team can win enough to satisfy a truly competitive person.  You can count on two hands the teams of the last fifty years in pro sports that were so dominant that their fans were constantly rewarded with championships: the Russell-era Celtics, the Shaq/Kobe-era Lakers, the Steel Curtain, the old Cowboys teams, the Bulls in their prime, the late 90s Yankees, and not many more.  And the sick truth is that when a team gets that dominant, their fans get smug and a little bored.  Not enough winning isn’t ever fully satisfying, and too much winning just spoils the fanbase and almost never happens anyway.  And there’s no such thing as just the right amount, Goldilocks.  Just ask Peyton Manning and the Colts fans if they’re satisfied with a Super Bowl win, another Super Bowl appearance, a regular season win streak record, four MVP awards, and umpteen-gillion playoff appearances in a row.  (Answer: No.)

So why do we do it?  I think we do it to remember.  I think we do it because looking back on sports memories is more fun than experiencing them in real time.

Memory and nostalgia makes every player better, every game more memorable, every win more glorious, every defeat less painful.  It’s not that fun to root for a losing franchise, but it’s fun to look back and tell someone about all those years pulling for the losers, willing those sadsacks to their occasional victory or rare playoff run.  Philly fans suffer in the present but are in the process of converting those memories into badges of honor.  Cleveland Browns fans have suffered an unbelievable amount of awful losses wrestled from the jaws of victory, but they are warriors over the long haul.  I still have a laugh with my friend Mike over the day he ripped his Browns shirt in half, pro-wrestling style, after they lost a dramatic shootout to the Chiefs.  And it’s not just the losing fanbases that benefit from hindsight – everyone does.  Eyes mist over remembering old championships.  Bygone players of established mediocrity are held dearer to the heart than good players working their butts off today.  So it goes.

I am an unapologetic Reggie Miller fanboy.  I don’t care that he flopped, that he couldn’t create his own shots, that his defense was beyond suspect.  Most of all I don’t care that he never won a ring.  As much as I enjoyed watching Reggie play, there was a lot of agony in it – every season for the Pacers during his career ended the same way, with a gut-wrenching playoff loss; except when it ended worse, with no playoffs at all.  But in memory the pain recedes and everything is bathed in golden light and slo-mo and New Age keyboard washes.  I get to remember Reggie going up for a game-winning three, which – in my memory – he always hits.  I get to remember how hard he tried, always; how the skinny, gangly, weird-looking guy stood up to Jordan, to Kobe, to any-damn-body that happened to be on the other team.  And the losses have achieved some kind of nobility because of how hard he tried to win.  They are symbolic of sheer effort.  It’s amazing how that happens.  Reggie’s farewell speech involved a lot of tears and him saying that he didn’t have a ring but he always tried his hardest.  Standing on the threshold, he was already transforming into something bigger than just a basketball player.

So it will go with the Colts.  If Manning doesn’t win another Super Bowl, it will sting – I guarantee I’ll be depressed again after every NFL season from now until he retires.  It has happened every year but one.  But when I remember it later, it will be different.  Beautiful arcing passes.  MVP awards.  Holding up the Lombardi Trophy.  Always trying.  Sometimes succeeding.

Saints vs. Colts

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They’re playing some sort of American football game this weekend – perhaps you have heard?  The blessed Saints of hurricane-torn New Orleans will be squaring off against Peyton Manning and whatever team he plays for.  It promises to be a good match-up with lots of scoring and perhaps, for the first time in a long time, no obvious favorite.  (Even though the media at large has decided the Colts are the obvious favorite.  As a Colts fan, that frightens me to death.)  So who does the Porch think is going to win?  Let’s break the game down.

1. OFFENSE.  The Saints were the NFL’s #1 offense all year – 404 yards and almost 32 points per game.  The Colts ranked 7th in points (26) and 9th in yards (363).  A lot of analysts speak as if the offenses are basically equal, however, and I think I agree with them.  The Colts have generally been happier to control the ball for long chunks of the game, and their bend-don’t-break defensive style tends to let the opponent have the ball more if they want to (see: the Miami game, where the ‘phins controlled the ball 75% of the time in a losing effort).  The Colts still turn it on when they want to, especially at the end of the second quarter and throughout the entire second half of many games.  Edge: none.

2. DEFENSE.  Neither defense looks good if you go by yards – the Colts gave up a lot of slow yards (339 per game, 18th in the league) whereas the Saints gave up more fast ones (358, 25th).  However the Colts ranked 8th in points allowed (19.2) and the Saints came in at 20th (21.3) – and the Colts’ rank was high before they gave up 29 and 30 to the Jets and Bills in the last two weeks, with many starters barely taking the field.  Edge: Colts.

3. SPECIAL TEAMS.  The Saints special teams are surprisingly anemic even with the Reggie Bush factor, which puts them even with the lackluster Colts special teams.  Both teams allowed approximately 25 yards per kickoff return, bottom ten in the league.  Indy gave up only 8.4 yards per punt return though, compared to New Orleans’ truly woeful 14.3 (good for last in the league, and team #31 allowed almost three full yards less!).  New Orleans gets about two extra yards per kickoff return (ranked 4th vs. 18th for the Colts); both teams are awful returning punts (5 yards approx).  Both teams make about 80% of their field goals, and neither kicks field goals any more often than it has to.  The Colts average 44 yards per punt – the Saints 43 and a half.  Edge: none.

4. TURNOVERS.  The Saints were +11 in the regular season and the Colts only +2 (though they committed few turnovers themselves).  The Saints also prevailed in an epic turnover and fumble-fest two weeks ago vs. Minnesota – they ultimately came up with five turnovers and forced seemingly fifteen thousand fumbles.  Edge: Saints.

5. QUARTERBACKS.  For once I won’t appeal to statistics, but to common sense.  Brees is phenomenal.  Manning is better.  He’s on another level from basically everybody else right now.  Edge: Colts.

6. COACHING.  Sean “New Play?  New Formation!” Payton vs. Jim “I Think I Smiled Once This Season – Better Get Myself Under Control” Caldwell?  Gotta be Payton.  Though Caldwell isn’t appreciated enough for being willing to shake up the Colts defense with a new coordinator, a few more blitzes per game, and more beef in the D-line.  Edge: Saints.

7. KARMA.  The Colts just won a Super Bowl three years ago.  The Saints are coming off the flooding of New Orleans and a long history of losing, during which their fans practically trademarked the “paper bag over the head” look.  Edge: Saints.

8. EXPERIENCE.  See first sentence of last section.  And most of those guys still play for the team.  Edge: Colts.

9. INJURIES. The Saints aren’t missing anyone of significance, but tight end Shockey has been playing hurt and hasn’t been that effective when doing so.  The Colts have four notables.  First of all, star safety Bob “Ow, My Liver!” Sanders has missed his fiftieth season in a row with a sprained and broken entire body.  Second, #2 wideout Anthony Gonzales is about to make it a full season of “I’ll be ready to play in a week or two.”  Third and fourth, decent cornerback Powers and feared defensive end Freeney have been day-to-day with hurt feet and ankles.  Well, the Colts have plugged the He-Man-shaped Sanders hole nicely with Melvin Bullitt.  We all know the Collie/Garcon story – Gonzales may not have much of a role next year.  Powers is a concern because Jacob Lacey was involved in the most embarrassing play for the Colts in the AFC Championship game – word is that he is improving but still questionable for the game.  And Freeney will probably play, though maybe not as much or as well as hoped.  I’m spinning like mad here, but still: Edge: Saints.

10. HISTORY.  The Colts walloped the Saints in 2007, 41-10.  Brees was mediocre, throwing two picks, while Manning had three TDs and no turnovers.  Those were not dissimilar teams to the two that will face off this weekend – mostly the same faces (Manning, Brees, Bush, Payton, Clark, Wayne, etc.) were on the field and sidelines then.  Granted that this Saints team is a lot better – 13-3 vs. 7-9.  And they opened this year with 13 wins in a row, as opposed to the 4 losses that kicked off that season.  Nonetheless… Edge: Colts.

11. VENUE.  The grass will slow down both dome teams, as will the weather if it’s inclement.  I don’t see a real advantage for anybody, except maybe a slight one for the team that played here three years ago.  Edge: none.

–

The pick: I believe the Colts will ultimately win and cover the spread, though the game will be close at halftime.  This isn’t a team that routinely blows opponents off the field, but they make great in-game adjustments and usually put up a run of points some time or another that leaves the other team dazed and demoralized.  If I had to guess, the Colts will post a two-score lead by the end of the third, and it won’t be much in question in the end.  …I hope.  By no means are the Colts a far superior team – but they are the best in the league at turning a small edge into a 10-14 point cushion.

Brett Favre killed in action; Rex Ryan’s big fat mouth gets shut

Filed Under Dale Cooper, Sports | 2 Comments

The conference championship round of the NFL playoffs is often a dull football weekend.  You’d think it would be hugely exciting – the best of the best; teams squaring off with nothing less than the Super Bowl at stake; storylines (real and imagined) galore, and usually more than a couple of big stars still in contention.  But the truth is that it’s the first NFL weekend each year that has only two games, and if one or both of those games is a blowout, it tends to leave fans feeling unsatisfied.  Last year’s games were decent – a division rivalry game between the Steelers and Ravens, and a semi-barnburner between the Eagles and Cardinals.  But then you have years like 2005, with the two winning teams posting a combined 37-point margin of victory; or 2004 with the Patriots and Eagles winning by 14 and 17 respectively (and the Patriots game wasn’t even that close – they led 24-3 at the half).  I hate feeling that resigned sigh after a boring championship round.  I hate when the games give me little to think about, and the Super Bowl is still two weeks away, and then it’s all over for another year.  Boo hiss on that.

Luckily, this weekend’s games were excellent.  Last night I felt almost like a kid on Christmas Eve – couldn’t sleep, thoughts racing.  One really good game (Colts/Jets) and one instant classic (Saints/Vikings).  My favorite team going to the Super Bowl, and America’s favorite grizzled ol’ gunslinger embroiled in an epic tragedy.  Great stuff.  Lots to process.

So let’s get to it.

Colts/Jets analysis

- This game was a classic tale of scoring runs and momentum shifts.  The Jets had a 17-3 run that put them 11 points ahead near the end of the first half; the Colts answered with a 24-0 run that gave them the win and the surprise cover of the spread.  In other words it was a classic sucker punch by the Jets to the solar plexus of both their fans and gamblers nationwide.

- Mark Sanchez looked remarkably close to an unironic Sanchise in this game.  Never mind that that sounds like something you’d find on Urban Dictionary and make disgusting jokes about.  The kid is pretty good.

- Young Colts Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie came up huge in this game.  The media said all week that Manning would throw away from Revis Island, and they were absolutely right.  And now the world knows two things for sure: one, these two guys more than make up for the absence of Marvin “How I Could Just Kill a Man” Harrison; and two, the Colts are one draft pick away from completing the “Sounds Like a Joke Name” trifecta.  Teams have seldom been so terrified of two guys who sound like a charicature of a French waiter and a $1500 breed of dog.

- Hey, did the Colts run the ball somewhat effectively yesterday?  I’m still trying to figure out if I dreamed that.

- Reggie Wayne has now notched two of the all-time Most Terrifying Plays for Colts Fans.  In the 2006 AFC Championship, he got wrapped up after a catch, fumbled up in the air, and somehow grabbed the ball back before he was brought to the ground – longest one-and-a-half seconds of my life.  And now he was responsible for the second-most-improbable self-recovered fumble of the weekend (after the one where Adrian “Crisco-Mitts” Peterson lost the ball, fell down, then got up and somehow snagged the ball back from the entire Saints team five yards upfield).  My heart will go on… barely.

- Peyton Manning is one win away from probably-the-best-ever status, and I couldn’t be happier.  (Not for him – for me.  I can’t wait to gloat.)  The rap on him for years was “great regular season QB, not so great playoff QB.”  Well if he wins the Super Bowl this year, he’ll have improved his playoff record to 10-8, with most of the losses coming to the great Patriots teams and those pesky Chargers; he’ll have two rings, and this one will be undeniably Manning-led (since he’s thrown 5 TDs to just one pick in this run so far); and he’ll have a brand new t-shirt, printed up and mailed off by me, that says “Brady fans can GET OFF MY NUTS.”

- I think I can safely speak for every NFL fan everywhere who doesn’t own a dark green jersey: shut up, Rex.

Saints/Vikings analysis

- That sound you just heard was a Saints defensive lineman hitting Brett Favre fourteen hours after the whistle.

- The Vikings fumbled six times and Favre threw two interceptions on top of it.  All told they had five turnovers, and Adrian “Weaky-Fingers” Peterson was a key participant in two of them.  That’s not how you get to the Super Bowl, guys.  But I guess I don’t need to tell you that.

- More turnover analysis: the Vikings worst sequence of the night was when, in field goal range at the end of regulation, they committed a five yard penalty (too many men in the huddle – shades of the Patriots a few years ago) and then Favre ran around like a little kid, drawin’ up plays in the dirt, and threw it to a Saint.  The worst part was that Favre had at least five yards in front of him to run – if he’d just taken off instead of throwing across his body, into traffic, he’d probably be celebrating a win today.  Or at least he wouldn’t be staring at himself in the mirror this morning with a single manly tear rolling down his grizzled cheek.  As I like to say after only the biggest epic playoff failures, that was UN-fortunate.

- That sound you just heard was a Saints linebacker piledriving Brett Favre in his own living room.

- The Saints really didn’t look that good, did they?  Except for their turnover machine defense, that is (or maybe they just hired a necromancer to put a serious jinx on the entire Vikings offense’s hands).  They were outgained by almost 200 yards.  That’s two hundo… deuce, aught, aught.  Brees was pretty off for a guy who ended up throwing three TDs and no picks.  Reggie Bush was held in check.  And the Vikings, even with their five turnovers in regulation and several stupid penalties in the 4th quarter and overtime, had all kinds of opportunities to win the game.  These looked like the same Saints that had so much trouble closing out teams like the Buccaneers down the stretch.  We’ll see in two weeks if they’re prepared for a well-oiled machine like Indy.  Or maybe they’ll just keep the football well-oiled, so that Addai does his best Adrian “Flipper-Arms” Peterson impression.  …Seriously, Vikes, SIX fumbles?  I can’t bring this up often enough.

- That sound you just heard was Brett Favre’s spine snapping in four places as Garrett Hartley booted the game ball right into his back.

Super Bowl pick

See you next week, when I will pulverise this game down to the tiniest micron, like a Saints defender obliterating the last remnants of Brett Favre’s youth, or Peyton Manning annihilating all of Rex Ryan’s hopes and dreams.  If we don’t know by then who will win the Super Bowl, with absolute clarity and certainty, it won’t be for lack of trying on my part; it will instead be because I am a smartass who is better at wisecracking than understanding football.  Until then!

This sub-.500 record won’t get me in the playoffs

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So here we are in the third week of the NFL playoffs, and it’s a surprisingly predictable group based on early regular-season returns.  Usually in any given year of pro football, you can count on two things: by week 10 or 12, everybody will be naming the two-to-four teams that they expect to go deep in the playoffs, possibly as far as the Super Bowl; and by the conference championship round, most of those teams have been eliminated in favor of unglamorous blue collar outfits like the Patriots (pre-Moss), the Giants (pre-suck), and the Steelers (forever).  But this year the 1-seed in the AFC and the 1 and 2 seeds in the NFC make up three quarters of the remaining teams – only the Jets are crashing the party.  Boo, hiss, boring.  (Unless you’re a Saints fan, or a Favre fan, or – like me -a Colts fan.  Then, yay!)

Last weekend review

I went 2-2 in my picks, a step up from 1-3 but not sufficient to make me look like much less of a bonehead.  I was correct in my basic thinking, however, which I can summarize with a few neat bullet points and a sprinkling of explanation for each:

  • Three home teams will win, and one will not. This is usually the case in the divisional round.  The four home teams almost never ALL win, but they typically go at least 2-2, if not 3-1.
  • Don’t get married to the latest hot thing to come strolling by. One of the biggest mistakes a lot of fans make is predicting teams that looked good winning wild card games to plow through their opponents in the next round.  Doesn’t always work that way.  The Ravens looked dominating in crushing the Pats – they mustered a lowly three points vs. the Colts.  The Cardinals laid an avalanche of points on the Packers, then rolled over against the Saints.  The Cowboys were a consensus favorite (except to the boys in Vegas) vs. Minnesota – I can’t even look at that final score without blushing on their behalf.
  • Momentum schmo…schmentum? You get my meaning.  There’s been a lot of talk about deadly, momentum-killing bye weeks, and teams taking the last game or two off to rest starters before the playoffs.  Conventional wisdom had it that those teams were doooomed.  The Colts lost two in a row and then had a bye.  The Saints lost THREE in a row and had a bye.  Minnesota was in a bit of a swoon.  All three teams thumped their opponent handily.  Momentum is overrated.  Not meaningless, but not as meaningful as we thought.

So anyway.  I missed on two picks – Cowboys vs. Vikings first.  I have to admit, I played “Modern Warfare 2″ through most of that game.  When I first turned it on (twenty minutes in) the score was still 0-0, I think.  When I switched back later on, Minnesota was dominating.  I couldn’t get interested after that.  So I don’t know what lesson to learn, except to emphasize the points above, and add a couple more: If everybody is overwhelmingly picking one team, you should get worried; and also, The Cowboys still suck in the playoffs.

Next up, Jets/Chargers.  The beauty of this pick was that much like the Ravens/Pats last week, I was happy with either outcome: I’m right if the favorite wins, but I’m delighted if the underdog beats a team I can’t stand.  I’m not a Norv fan and Phillip Rivers is a (talented) punk – plus the Chargers have had the Colts’ number the last few years – so I bid them a very happy adieu Sunday afternoon.  See you in hell, candy boys!  I also have to stick to my guns here and say that the Chargers were the better team – just not that day.  First of all, Norv couldn’t coach his way out of a paper bag.  He’d probably call three runs by LT to try to break the bottom out of it, not realizing that LT is too old and crappy to rip paper these days, and there’s a big opening if you just turn around and go the other direction.  (Naturally, the Chargers just extended this playoff genius’s contract through 2013.  Millions of Chargers fans’ voices suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened.)   Second, Nate Kaeding?  Ouch, man.  When you leave nine points (at least six of them easily had) on the field in what is ultimately a three point contest… there’s just nothing to say, except that a little kid called, and he wants his grumpy face back.  On top of those things, the team committed too many stupid penalties (the headbutt?  the challenge flag kick?  really??!?) and bizarre mistakes (the snap over Rivers’s head, the Revis shoe-kick interception).  The Chargers seemed too talented to have lost that game like that.  But I ain’t complainin’.

Who got next?

1. NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts. This line opened rather low – Colts by 6 1/2, I think.  For me, this match-up is simple: Manning won’t let their offense be controlled to the extent that Norv allowed, and (hopefully!) there won’t be any interceptions that bounce off a receiver’s shoe as he lays on the ground.  I like Indianapolis to advance to their second Super Bowl appearance this decade.

2. Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints. A tougher call.  I could almost flip a coin on this one, and the line suggests that Vegas feels the same – it’s the Saints by 4 1/2, which makes them only a slight favorite (homefield advantage by itself is worth three points).  I’m going to go with the home favorite again, simply because Brees has that look in his eye, and has most of the year.  And also, if I’m going to root for either team in that game, it won’t be Favre’s.

Tomorrow’s post today!

Filed Under Dale Cooper, Sports | 7 Comments

Usually Tuesday is my day at Porch Dog, but I have football on the brain this morning, so you get to hear from me now.

After all, who wouldn’t have football on the brain after yesterday afternoon’s exciting Cardinals/Packers tilt?  The teams combined for 96 points, 1024 yards, 57 completed passes, 4 turnovers, one defensive touchdown (in overtime no less), one missed field goal (that would have won the game in regulation).  Basically it was exciting as hell from halftime on, after looking in the early going like it would be a Cardinals blowout win.

OK, so I went 1-3 in picks.  You can head to the customer service counter for a full refund.  My initial instincts were 2-2, but I revised to a Green Bay pick after looking at the Cardinals injury report.  That wasn’t as big of a mistake as trusting Aaron Rogers not to get sacked in a critical situation – silly me.  I also made the huge error of picking Philadelphia to win, which always blows up in my face.  I’m not kidding: Philadelphia has screwed me so routinely that I kind of hate Donovan McNabb now, even though he’s a lovable guy and a very good QB*.  I have been knocked out of my office suicide pool in consecutive years by the Eagles – this year they crapped the bed against the dreadful Oakland Raiders, barely even showing up for the game – and now this on top of it.  God help me if I ever pick a team to win that has McNabb throwing or Andy Reid coaching.  They are the worst team in NFL history that annually wins 10+ games and gets into the playoffs.

I also missed on the Patriots/Ravens pick, but that was just a weird game – I stand by my selection.  I just think the Patriots had an improbable explosion of bad luck in the first quarter, and once the score was 21-0 they rolled over and died.  The Patriots gave up a rare long rushing TD to open the game.  Then Brady was strip-sacked (an even more rare event – in fact he is seldom sacked, period) and the Ravens recovered in the red zone.  Then on the next drive, Brady got happy feet and chucked the ball right to the defense, and the meltdown was in full effect.  A later decent throw (but into tight coverage) that was tipped and then intercepted was just rotten icing on the poop cake.  So yeah, I got the pick wrong, but I don’t think the Patriots would open a game that way more than one time in a hundred.  And also, because I hate them so, I got to enjoy their ugly loss even though it was costing me prognosticator cred.

We have one more real football weekend, the last one with four games.  So I’m ready to enjoy it to the fullest.  Here are the picks:

1. Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints.

Key factors: Arizona’s offense actually caught fire midway through the Green Bay game (Larry Fitzgerald’s hands were burning, which is why he plowed right through a cornerback on one play – I assume smoke was in the official’s eyes).  And New Orleans has been bad for a while now, losing three in a row (after winning thirteen) and looking lost and confused during the run.  Can they rebound?  Will losing the MVP make Brees mad?  I say New Orleans will contain the Cardinals better than the Packers did, since it looked like the Packers were using two waterboys and a random guy from the stands to try to cover the Arizona receivers yesterday.  The Saints are no offensive slouches themselves, which bodes ill for a Cardinals D that gave up 35 second half points.

The pick: Saints. I think they’ll get their crap together this week and win a slightly less exhausting shootout than the one the Cardinals survived previously.  I also think Kurt Warner won’t have another game with more touchdowns thrown than incompletions, a stat which says a lot more about the Green Bay secondary and pass rush than it says about Warner’s abilities.  (He’s still good – really good, I think – but that defensive “effort” was embarrassing.)

2. Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts.

Key factors: Baltimore looked great in the first quarter yesterday, running the ball with ferocity and playing lights-out defense against one of the league’s best offensive teams.  Then again, the Patriots were uncharacteristically flat, sloppy, and panicked by turns.  I don’t know if Baltimore will have another game like this in them.  If Flacco has to make more plays than he did yesterday, they could be in trouble – he has been fairly pedestrian this season.  On the other side, the Colts won 14 in a row and then shut it down the last two weeks before their bye, so rust could be a problem.  But they have also beat the Ravens the last five million times they faced them (I think), including one game this season and a playoff game during their 2006 Super Bowl run.

The pick: Colts.  But I like the Ravens to cover (the line opened at 6 1/2).

3. Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings.

Key factors: Minnesota is cold (3 losses in their last five games, then a bye – though they did hammer the Giants in week 17).  Dallas is hot (four wins in a row, including the playoff game vs. Philly – plus Romo is actually putting it together in cold weather, who knew??).  Sometimes it’s that simple.  (And sometimes it isn’t.  But I am a sucker for simplicity.)

The pick: Cowboys.  But don’t feel bad for Favre – he’s just a kid out there, just slingin’ the ol’ pigskin around and havin’ fun.  Wranglers.

4. New York Jets at San Diego Chargers.

Key factors: The Jets stomped the Bengals twice in a row, and are trying (along with Baltimore) to disprove all the pundits who claim that the NFL is now a passing league, and running + run defense no longer wins championships.  Well, here’s a real test for that theory.  The Chargers throw the ball very well, so this may well be a microcosm for the evolution of the NFL.  We know teams are passing more in the regular season – does passing now win a title, too?  Stay tuned.  Of the eight remaining playoff teams, the Jets, Ravens, and Vikings adhere closest to the old formula for winning the Lombardi Trophy.  But the sexy teams have laser rocket-armed quarterbacks and a healthy disrespect for tradition.  We’ll see how it plays out.

The pick: Chargers.  The Jets are living on borrowed time.  The Sanchise is not good.  Relevant quote from ESPN’s The Sports Guy, Bill Simmons**: “I don’t know what kind of quarterback Mark Sanchez will be five years from now. But if I had to LOSE a 2009 playoff game and could pick any starting QB, and JaMarcus Russell was trapped under a rock, I’d think long and hard about the Sanchize.”***  That is not a ringing endorsement.  Sanchez is bad.  And lord help the Jets if they ever need him to do anything to win a game.  San Diego is better than the Bengals, and they’re at home – they’ll either crush the Jets or force them into a corner where Sanchez is the only way out, and he’ll rise to try to meet the challenge, except it will collide with his face like that I-beam that smacked Joe Pantoliano near the end of “The Fugitive.”

–

* Suck it, Limbaugh.

** In his pick of Cincinnati to win on Saturday – I suppose we have to mention that.

*** Spelling of Sanchize/Sanchise apparently not yet standardized.  I expect it to appear in Webster’s next year, resolving the quandary.

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