Comments on: Fact or Opinion? http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557 Intellectualism flies out the window and lands on the porch. Thu, 02 Sep 2010 21:17:42 -0400 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Big Dog http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557&cpage=1#comment-2883 Big Dog Sat, 05 Dec 2009 00:07:15 +0000 http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557#comment-2883 All you've really done here, and I tried to get this point a little bit, is reveal a second usage of the word "opinion" and it's the one that confuses the issue to start with. "A considered opinion" is bet hedge that soften the actuality that someone is really saying "I believe..." which is a statement of fact about that belief. An "opinion" as such, is a statement of value, which the above is not. All you’ve really done here, and I tried to get this point a little bit, is reveal a second usage of the word “opinion” and it’s the one that confuses the issue to start with. “A considered opinion” is bet hedge that soften the actuality that someone is really saying “I believe…” which is a statement of fact about that belief. An “opinion” as such, is a statement of value, which the above is not.

]]> By: Shae http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557&cpage=1#comment-2882 Shae Fri, 04 Dec 2009 21:09:05 +0000 http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557#comment-2882 "It is my considered opinion, as a safety consultant and highway engineer with 25 years of experience, that lowering speed limits would significantly lower fatalities on America’s highways." The speaker here is not confusing fact with opinion, but is saying "It is my considered opinion that were we able to prove the issue factually one way or the other, the facts would come down on the side of lower speed limits lowering fatalities." Which is what he means to say, I think. “It is my considered opinion, as a safety consultant and highway engineer with 25 years of experience, that lowering speed limits would significantly lower fatalities on America’s highways.”

The speaker here is not confusing fact with opinion, but is saying “It is my considered opinion that were we able to prove the issue factually one way or the other, the facts would come down on the side of lower speed limits lowering fatalities.”

Which is what he means to say, I think.

]]> By: Shae http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557&cpage=1#comment-2881 Shae Fri, 04 Dec 2009 21:04:35 +0000 http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557#comment-2881 "Lower speed limits will reduce traffic-related fatalities. ... That makes this statement sort of straightforwardly a statement of fact." Let's say the question is whether there are little green men who wear red hats on a small planet four galaxies away. This too, is a statement of fact, strictly speaking. There either are or their aren't. But we're so lacking in factual evidence on the matter, that in practical terms, it makes more sense for someone to say "It's my opinion that there are" than to speak of the factuality of it. This is the case with the type of question above too. We could probably do a hundred studies on a hundred cases throughout the world of speed limits high and low relative to accidents, and get an untelligable mess of evidence both for and against. Because while it's your opinion that compliance, fines, and enforcement are the relevant factors, it's entirely possible that road repair conditions, range of speed limits considered, degree of speed limit lowering, amount of livestock at large, political rest or unrest in the area, and the color of police cars are the relevant conditions, and that speed limits can affect different areas differently (or not at all) depending upon these other conditions. So yes, whether or not lower speed limits will reduce traffic-related fatalities, under a given set of deterministic controlled circumstances that can't be duplicated, is a statement of fact. But it's a useless point. Opinions on the matter are in fact what is being discussed in these kinds of situations. “Lower speed limits will reduce traffic-related fatalities.

… That makes this statement sort of straightforwardly a statement of fact.”

Let’s say the question is whether there are little green men who wear red hats on a small planet four galaxies away.

This too, is a statement of fact, strictly speaking. There either are or their aren’t. But we’re so lacking in factual evidence on the matter, that in practical terms, it makes more sense for someone to say “It’s my opinion that there are” than to speak of the factuality of it.

This is the case with the type of question above too. We could probably do a hundred studies on a hundred cases throughout the world of speed limits high and low relative to accidents, and get an untelligable mess of evidence both for and against. Because while it’s your opinion that compliance, fines, and enforcement are the relevant factors, it’s entirely possible that road repair conditions, range of speed limits considered, degree of speed limit lowering, amount of livestock at large, political rest or unrest in the area, and the color of police cars are the relevant conditions, and that speed limits can affect different areas differently (or not at all) depending upon these other conditions.

So yes, whether or not lower speed limits will reduce traffic-related fatalities, under a given set of deterministic controlled circumstances that can’t be duplicated, is a statement of fact. But it’s a useless point. Opinions on the matter are in fact what is being discussed in these kinds of situations.

]]> By: Big Dog http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557&cpage=1#comment-2880 Big Dog Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:39:16 +0000 http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557#comment-2880 Word! Word!

]]> By: J http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557&cpage=1#comment-2879 J Thu, 03 Dec 2009 17:08:46 +0000 http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557#comment-2879 I agree and after re-reading my comment I see where this came off wrong. My only point is that people too "assume" or argue that a statistical statement of fact (using your terms) is "true" because it is "statistical." My point was just supporting your idea that a Statement of Fact need not be "true." In other words, statistical support is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a statement of fact to be true. I agree and after re-reading my comment I see where this came off wrong. My only point is that people too “assume” or argue that a statistical statement of fact (using your terms) is “true” because it is “statistical.” My point was just supporting your idea that a Statement of Fact need not be “true.” In other words, statistical support is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a statement of fact to be true.

]]> By: Big Dog http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557&cpage=1#comment-2878 Big Dog Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:06:20 +0000 http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557#comment-2878 I had a longer response that I just deleted. Let's just say I disagree with that final bit. Even if statistical results are not as concrete as "the ball is red" the statements made about them are statements of fact even if they later turn out to be wrong. That is, if you say, "From the data we have determined that lower property taxes doesn't decrease quality of schools and the causal mechanism for lower quality schools appears to be architecturally-based." That is still a statement of fact even if a later analysis proves that architecture has a marginal effect on school quality. Nothing can replace a model except a better model. But in any case, correct or incorrect, these are statements of fact. I had a longer response that I just deleted. Let’s just say I disagree with that final bit. Even if statistical results are not as concrete as “the ball is red” the statements made about them are statements of fact even if they later turn out to be wrong. That is, if you say, “From the data we have determined that lower property taxes doesn’t decrease quality of schools and the causal mechanism for lower quality schools appears to be architecturally-based.” That is still a statement of fact even if a later analysis proves that architecture has a marginal effect on school quality. Nothing can replace a model except a better model. But in any case, correct or incorrect, these are statements of fact.

]]> By: J http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557&cpage=1#comment-2877 J Wed, 02 Dec 2009 22:07:04 +0000 http://porch-dog.com/?p=3557#comment-2877 Ah, the Normative vs. Positive debate, you would be amazed how many college students have issues with this. It is also amazing how many people forget that EVERY statistical results has with it a measurement of error of some sort and that the assumptions upon which MOST statistical (or econometric) models are based on (i.e. you speed limit example) are impossible to actually follow. As result ANY statistical result is far from a "fact;" at best it is a fact based on my opinion of how well the assumptions are met. Ah, the Normative vs. Positive debate, you would be amazed how many college students have issues with this. It is also amazing how many people forget that EVERY statistical results has with it a measurement of error of some sort and that the assumptions upon which MOST statistical (or econometric) models are based on (i.e. you speed limit example) are impossible to actually follow. As result ANY statistical result is far from a “fact;” at best it is a fact based on my opinion of how well the assumptions are met.

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